Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ICP prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-27 5.873738 6.450692 7.085954 7.842281 8.724798 9.730253 10.974418
2024-11-03 4.937994 5.698895 6.603199 7.776203 9.286960 11.211043 13.923773
2024-11-10 4.617587 5.521781 6.658233 8.232734 10.429678 13.510396 18.416853
2024-11-17 4.290509 5.264460 6.540174 8.398942 11.163783 15.368093 22.843380
2024-11-24 3.931276 4.912356 6.235999 8.237495 11.363148 16.432294 26.323818
2024-12-01 3.679037 4.672712 6.049698 8.204479 11.728828 17.819525 30.916452
2024-12-08 3.425417 4.405247 5.791411 8.019904 11.803433 18.698206 34.848708
2024-12-15 3.247752 4.228695 5.645352 7.986079 12.116975 20.084554 40.642075
2024-12-22 3.089514 4.066695 5.503986 7.938153 12.389887 21.452862 47.227648
2024-12-29 3.008598 4.010967 5.517478 8.145499 13.166665 24.115363 59.658913
2025-01-05 2.837019 3.807454 5.282599 7.896763 13.011484 24.601269 65.312519
2025-01-12 2.678112 3.614103 5.050413 7.629730 12.779468 24.845600 70.380842
2025-01-19 2.535921 3.448064 4.866007 7.459385 12.786074 25.879948 80.947481
2025-01-26 2.423979 3.324188 4.744441 7.397673 13.032372 27.714193 98.847792
2025-02-02 2.409405 3.351040 4.873536 7.821199 14.453645 33.661058 158.152165
2025-02-09 2.349235 3.300243 4.865190 7.975180 15.283920 38.303674 234.241341
2025-02-16 2.246552 3.173984 4.715543 7.825611 15.324319 40.189409 296.412828
2025-02-23 2.170212 3.086720 4.628322 7.795011 15.671560 43.531659 421.185149
2025-03-02 2.079460 2.970792 4.481946 7.623861 15.606318 45.153246 545.478979
2025-03-09 2.014942 2.895568 4.404323 7.592481 15.929238 48.816740 853.813195
2025-03-16 1.953180 2.821893 4.324629 7.548011 16.208345 52.560190 1450.138534
2025-03-23 1.925988 2.805549 4.349763 7.740336 17.250633 61.520953 5432.446665
2025-03-30 1.847951 2.698082 4.196869 7.509598 16.917771 62.093871 9544.076006